An Update to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for New York City: A Case Study for the JFK Airport

Session: Forthcoming Updates of the USGS NSHMs: Hawaii, Conterminous U.S. and Alaska
Type: Oral
Date: 4/28/2020
Time: 03:15 PM
Room: 230 + 235
Description: 

A key decision for seismic design of structures is evaluating the need for an update of an existing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) in light of new data and information that has become available since the time that the analysis was completed. PSHA have evolved considerably over the past two decades, applying new models and methods developed by government agencies, industry and academia, and incorporating substantial new earthquake data from world-wide seismic events. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and update the current PSHA study provided by the New York City Department of Transportation (NYCDOT, 1998; 2002). The JFK Airport site is selected as a case study to perform the updated PSHA to harmonize NYCDOT’s guidance on seismic hazard analyses with current state of practice. There have been significant advancements in estimating seismic demands for New York since the NYCDOT studies. Improvements may be classified into two main categories, seismic sources and Ground Motion Models (GMMs). Although no significant earthquakes have taken place in the vicinity of the JFK site since 2002, updates to the USGS 2014 historical background seismic source models (Petersen et al, 2014) have developed due to reconsideration of historical events and recorded earthquake data. The NGA-East project (Goulet et al, 2018) has developed new GMMs for use in the upcoming USGS 2020 hazard map updates. The updates to the seismic sources include employing the 2014 USGS seismic background seismicity source model in combination with the available areal sources. The update to the GMMs includes using the NGA-East GMMs that have been recently developed and will be used for the 2020 USGS National seismic Hazard Mapping Program (NSHMP). The results calculated in this study will be for hard rock in the eastern United States, with a shear wave velocity of 2.83 km/sec (NEHRP site class A).

Presenting Author: Alireza Haji-Soltani

Authors