Forthcoming Updates of the USGS NSHMs: Hawaii, Conterminous U.S. and Alaska
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are the bridge between best-available earthquake science and public policy. In the next few years, the National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP) will complete three model updates: Hawaii (2020), the conterminous U.S. (COUS, 2023) and Alaska (2024?). The Hawaii seismic hazard model was last updated in 1998. The NSHMP is currently in the process of updating this model and held a public workshop in September 2019 to present early findings and solicit feedback from the scientific community. The current status of the model will be presented in this session, as well as preliminary hazard results. The COUS model was last updated in 2018 and includes NGA-East ground motion models (GMMs) in the central and eastern U.S. and basin amplifications in the western U.S. (WUS). The next model update for the COUS will be in 2023 with a focus on updating the WUS source model and subduction zone GMMs. The deadline for publications that the USGS may consider for this update is December 2020. We have also begun to plan for the Alaska NSHM, last updated in 2007.
For this session, we invite contributions relevant to the 2023 COUS and Alaska NSHM updates including, but not limited to: Atlantic and Gulf Coast and other alternative site amplification models, new fault models (WUS and Alaska), UCERF3 update/simplification, NGA-Subduction GMMs, physics-based (3D simulation) ground motion model validation and implementation, non-ergodic aleatory uncertainty, basin models, new geodetic data and inversions, M-area scaling relations and the Alaska megathrust geometry and recurrence.
Conveners
Allison M. Shumway, U.S. Geological Survey (ashumway@usgs.gov); Mark D. Petersen, U.S. Geological Survey (mpetersen@usgs.gov); Peter M. Powers, U.S. Geological Survey (pmpowers@usgs.gov); Sanaz Rezaeian, U.S. Geological Survey (srezaeian@usgs.gov)
Oral Presentations
| Participant Role | Details | Start Time | Minutes | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Submission | Finalizing the 2020 National Seismic Hazard Model for Hawaii | 10:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2021 Revision | 11:00 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Basin Amplification Factors and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Seattle, Washington Based on 3D Simulations of Subduction-Zone and Crustal Earthquakes | 11:15 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Updating the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for Alaska | 11:30 AM | 15 | View |
| Submission | The Need for Alaska-Specific Ground Motion Models for Updating U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Seismic Hazard Maps | 11:45 AM | 15 | View |
| Other Time | Lunch | 12:00 PM | 150 | |
| Submission | NGA-Subduction Research Project | 02:30 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Evolution of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations Developments Based on Graizer-Kalkan Modular Filter-Based Approach | 02:45 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | A Rupture Directivity Adjustment Model Applicable to the NGA-West2 Ground Motion Models and Complex Fault Geometries | 03:00 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | An Update to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for New York City: A Case Study for the JFK Airport | 03:15 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Comparison of the Site Response in Anchorage from Mainshock and Aftershocks of 30 November 2018, Anchorage Earthquake | 03:30 PM | 15 | View |
| Other Time | Break | 03:45 PM | 45 | |
| Submission | Use of Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for the National Hazard Maps | 04:30 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Implementing Non-Ergodic GMMs in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis | 04:45 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Assessing the Value of Removing Earthquake-Hazard-Related Epistemic Uncertainties, Exemplified Using Average Annual Loss in California | 05:00 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | Benchmarking the First Generation Canadian National Seismic Risk Assessment | 05:15 PM | 15 | View |
| Submission | 2020 NEHRP Provisions Design Ground Motions Based on Multi-Period Response Spectra (MPRS) and Their Implications for USGS Hazard Models | 05:30 PM | 15 | View |
| Total: | 420 Minute(s) |
Forthcoming Updates of the USGS NSHMs: Hawaii, Conterminous U.S. and Alaska
Description