Benchmarking the First Generation Canadian National Seismic Risk Assessment

Session: Forthcoming Updates of the USGS NSHMs: Hawaii, Conterminous U.S. and Alaska
Type: Oral
Date: 4/28/2020
Time: 05:15 PM
Room: 230 + 235
Description: 

Disaster risk reduction relies on quantitative models to analyze the future impacts and consequences of known hazard threats, and to evaluate the efficacy of proposed mitigation and adaptation measures. To this end, Natural Resources Canada is collaborating with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation on the first ever national earthquake risk assessment to inform disaster risk reduction planning by individuals, businesses and organizations working across all jurisdictional levels. The 2020 National Seismic Risk Model incorporates the 2020 National Seismic Hazard Map, a novel physical exposure model for the entire country and HAZUS-based earthquake building performance functions. However, it has not yet been validated in a Canadian context using observations from real world disaster events or pre-existing catastrophic risk models. This study focuses on benchmarking the 2020 Canadian National Seismic Risk Model using shaking intensities and physical impacts recorded from the 2001 M_w 6.8 Nisqually and 2012 M_w 7.8 Haida Gwaii events and the results of a 2013 study performed by AIR Worldwide evaluating the potential impact of catastrophic earthquakes in eastern Quebec or Cascadia.

We compute anticipated damage, loss and injuries for these benchmark scenario earthquakes using the OpenQuake engine with the most up-to-date Canadian exposure and physical vulnerability models. This study will compare the model results with observed or predicted impacts of these earthquakes in Canada, after adjusting for economic and population growth. Ultimately, this work will assess the ability of the National Seismic Risk Assessment to reproduce expected results, to ensure the applicability of this model in anticipating future outcomes. Along with the upcoming 2020 National Seismic Hazard Map for Canada, these updates mark an improved understanding of hazard and risk, bridging the coterminous United States and Alaska.

Presenting Author: Tiegan E. Hobbs

Authors